RE: It's All About Perspective

I got this comment from a DREB reader about this post. Thanks to the anonymous poster because I appreciate this type of feedback and dialogue. Also thanks to him/her for clarifying the stats for me.

The 78% drop is volume, not price. Also, there may not be 60% appreciation in one year, but there are areas that have experienced very high appreciation. That makes the overall DFW market more difficult to analyze. There are some ZIP codes that will see depreciation.

I could not agree more that there are some zip codes that will see depreciation. I've said that many times and even on T.V. But I must disagree that some areas have seen "very high appreciation". First, what does that mean? And second, the only areas that will ever appreciate around 25% will be Preston Hollow and Park Cities and maybe some parts of Lakewood or around White Rock Lake. If any other area appreciates by this much then there are other forces at play such as big time developers scooping up land or apartments in a smaller city.

It's All About Perspective

I was just reading this post on Dallas Dirt where an ignorant real estate jockey think they know more about the real estate market than the experts. So I bristled up and needed to blog on this New Years Eve Eve.

I will be running year end sales statistics after the New Year so we can put all of the stories to bed and you can make up your own mind how "bad" 2007 was for real estate in Dallas. But I couldn't wait to post this from a great blog straight out of Irvine, CA that dedicates itself to sharing stories about sellers who are losing their asses. Here is basically the whole post.

ZIP
92602 $662,000 -78.4%
92603 $760,000 -31.3%
92604 $630,000 -31.3%
92606 $867,500 -56.0%
92612 $397,500 -14.3%
92614 $650,000 -63.6%
92618 $742,000 23.5%
92620 $892,250 -66.7%

This is the first median I have seen reported under $400K (92612).

I'm not sure if these are year-over-year statistics and there are some other numbers he includes in the post that I didn't know what to make of them. But that's not the point. Here's what you should take away from this.

1. Dallas will never see 60% percentages in appreciation year-over-year which means we will never see these percentages in depreciation as well.

2. Dallas is doing very well heading for a 5% appreciation overall for 2007. Compare that with the -78% depreciation of zip code 92602 in Irvine, CA. We need to be grateful and put our great real estate market in perspective.

3. There is a zip code in CA with an average sales price under $400K. Investment opportunity? I think so.

Am I off base in my thinking? Am I being overly optomistic? I dont' think so. I think I am being realistic. Most important, what do you think?