Showing posts with label Sales Stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sales Stats. Show all posts

Sunday, September 9, 2012

The Death of the Dreaded "Z" Sale

Since I began in the real estate industry back in 2003, there has always been a huge debate regarding the dreaded "Z" sales price. For those of you not familiar with the real estate jargon, a "Z" sales price means that the true sales price was not disclosed in the MLS. Area brokers and appraisers would see the last list price of the home with a "Z" next to it; therefore, no one in the real estate industry would be able to use that sale as a reliable comp.

The impact of this little letter will never affect approximately 99% of the real estate market areas throughout North Texas. However, in some of the higher end neighborhoods, such as the Park Cities, Preston Hollow, and Turtle Creek, "Z" sales could account for up to 20% of all the sales. This meant that agents and appraisers would never be able to use any of those sales when running market analyses for their respective clients. Since Texas is a "non-disclosure state" there was a question of whether or not our local MLS could prohibit area brokers from using the "Z" sales price and require them to disclose actual sales prices.

Well it looks like this debate has finally come to an end...for now. Feel free to read the full release from the MetroTex Association of Realtors below. (Link provided here) In short, as of October 15th, 2012 brokers will no longer be allowed to utilize "Z" sales in the MLS. I'm happy this rule is being abolished. It will mean more accurate appraisals for agents, appraisers, and the city of Dallas. Of course, this will also mean some of the more expensive purchases will have to pay more property taxes. For example, I once looked at a home listed at $10M; the Dallas County Appraisal District had it valued at $3.95M. It turned out that the last few times this home had sold, the price in the MLS had been "Z'd out;" therefore, the county had no way of knowing what the home was truly worth. I'll save my paying-your-fair-share debate for another blog post, but for now let's just say that I'm happy with this change. I also hope the commercial real estate sector will jump on board. (See my post about Dallas Country Club for my thoughts on that)


Newly Revised NTREIS Rules have received final approval from NAR and among the changes is new language that removes the “Z sale” provision and clarifies mandatory reporting of sales prices to the MLS.  MetroTex has adopted an enforcement policy that includes a period of time to educate MLS subscribers about the rules change and allow for existing contracts with a non-disclosure requirement to close.  We will include announcements at the area MLS meetings as well as in this publication and other written notices from the association with information about the Rules change and we will not accept any non-disclosure requests dated after October 15, 2012.
Why this change and why now? 
The NTREIS Rules and Regulations have always required that MLS Participants disclose the sales information for listings and that listing agreements with your Sellers include provisions for including this information.   However, since the State of Texas is one of a few states that does not require the sales price be included in the publicly recorded Deeds,  there was always some question over whether a purchaser had the right to demand that their purchase price not be reported to the MLS system.  For that reason, our Rules inserted a provision that allowed a purchaser to make this request and, if all parties agreed, the Listing Participant could report this as a “Z sale”.  This was always intended to be an exception for the rare circumstance where a purchaser made the request and the “Z” was a placeholder beside the last list price so that these “Zero” sales would not significantly affect our statistical reports by including a “$0” sale within a sampling of comparables.  A last list price would be reasonably close to the actual purchase amount and would be on an insignificant number of sales, thus having little effect on comparables.     For example, in 2005, “Z sales” were less than 1% of overall sales in the system, though even then we were seeing over 10% in some neighborhoods.   By 2010 we saw a 150% increase to over 2% of the market being non-disclosed sales and close to 20% in some neighborhoods.  This begins to have a significant impact on comparable sales available and hinders the ability of real estate sales professionals to accurately advise clients on home values.  The inability for Appraisers to provide accurate comparables negatively impacts the lender’s loan approval process.  MetroTex began an educational process on the Rules requirement to report sales information and to enforce the “failure to report sales” provision of the Rules against MLS Subscribers that had a high level of non-disclosed sales and to closely scrutinize the documentation to support such sales to ensure that the requests were being initiated only by purchasers and in compliance with the Rules.   We also began discussing with our neighboring MLS Providers and with NTREIS possible rewording of the provision in the Rules that allowed for nondisclosure requests.  These efforts did result in a reduction of non-disclosed sales to approximately 1 ½ %,  but there still remains a significant impact in some neighborhoods.
At the same time, an unrelated challenge in another market area over the requirement to report sales information in a “non-disclosure” State* resulted in a legal opinion and a Rules clarification in the National Association of REALTORS MLS Policy and Model Rules clarifying that an MLS, which is a private subscription based service, can require its Participants to report all sales information, including sales prices.   In a “non-disclosure” State,  this requirement can still be made as long as the information is reported to the MLS service and the MLS service does not publicly distribute that sold information to 3rd parties  (with a few exceptions for academic and statistical reporting).  Mandatory adoption of this new language from NAR  removed any question of reporting sales prices, allowing NTREIS to remove the exception that allowed for non-disclosure.
A common reason given for a purchaser to request non-disclosure has been privacy.  This is often the case for a high profile government official or celebrity and accounted for the reason the “exception” was added to Rules many years ago.   In today’s world of social blogs and tabloid news,  locations and prices paid are now public fare.  We have seen several cases over the last few years where this information was not disclosed to MLS Participants and Subscribers  (who pay a fee for their services), but was front page “news” in tabloids and gossip blogs.   The information reported did not come from the MLS then and will not come from the MLS in the future -  the MLS Rules include specific provisions on how Participants and Subscribers may use sold information and specifically prohibits distribution of this information to the public.   For more information on how to address questions over reporting of sales information, see our FAQ’s.
*non-disclosure State:   In most states, the Deed recorded in the Public Records states the amount paid for the property being deeded.   In a “non-disclosure” state  (like Texas),  there is no legislative requirement that the amount tendered be included in the recorded Deed, thus most Deeds in such states include “$10 and other consideration” in place of the actual amount tendered.    In Texas, there is no law prohibiting the amount tendered being included, it simply is not legislatively required.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Sales Statistics For January thru May: A year-over-year comparison

I wanted to see how the YTD (Jan. - May) sales numbers for 2011 compared with last year's sales numbers. And since we all know there was that little "Buyer's Tax Credit" thing that falsely inflated our sales numbers for 2010, I went back to 2009, as well. So take a look and let me know what you think.

The first thing that sticks out to me is the 9% drop in the number of sales for Area 12 from '09 to '11, yet during the same time Area 12 has seen roughly a 25% increase in average sales price. This is intriguingly coincided with an almost 20% increase in DOM. I'm at a loss as to how to explain this. So perhaps some of you stats geeks out there can help out.

Area 12 (East Dallas/Lakewood/White Rock Lake)

Year # Sales Sales $ $/sf DOM
'09 707 $221,465 $118 98
'10 751 $229,455 $124 93
'11 648 $276,756 $134 117

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Area 11 sales have increased over 50% during this same time period in 2009, yet from '09 to '10 the sales prices dropped 14%, only to increase slightly in 2011. Maybe this means North Dallas and Preston Hollow hit the bottom? If so, aren't you mad you missed out on some great deals?

Area 11 (North Dallas/Preston Hollow)

Year # Sales Sales $ $/sf DOM
'09 152 $842,824 $217 137
'10 217 $728,165 $187 162
'11 232 $761,022 $192 146

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Sales in the Park Cities have increased a stunning 80% since '09, with a modest 8% increase in average sales price. This seems like a solid upward trend. This seems much easier to interpret than the other two areas.

Area 25 (Park Cities)

Year # Sales Sales $ $/sf DOM
'09 161 $1.049M $292 136
'10 275 $1.072M $298 143
'11 291 $1.133M $309 127

Monday, March 10, 2008

Collin County Sales Stats



Collin County Sales Stats

January 1st, 2007 to March 10th, 2007

Sold: 1,997
Avg. DOM: 73
Avg. SF: 2,593
Avg. Sales Price: $237,701
Total Volume: $474,688,596

January 1st, 2008 to March 10th, 2008
(% Change)

Sold: 1,466 (-27%)
Avg. DOM: 89 (+18%)
Avg. SF: 2,660 (+3%)
Avg. Sales Price: $239,693 (+1%)
Total Volume: $351,390,193 ( -26%) *Many sales are not reported until months after they take place so this number will most likely increase over time.

All the talk about foreclosures in Collin County doesn't seem to have affected prices seeing as they posted a 1% increase over this time last year. Number of sales seems to have been affected the most in both Collin and Dallas counties.

Is this due to buyer psyche? There's more inventory on the market but less sales which means buyers aren't buying for some reason. I explained why back in December. This seems to still be the case. Basically, there's lots of ugly and overpriced homes on the market and buyer's arent' stupid. Reduce or clean up and fix your house. Otherwise, sit tight.

Dallas County Sales Stats



Dallas County Sales Stats

January 1st, 2007 to March 10th, 2007

Sold: 3,789
Avg. DOM: 75
Avg. SF: 2,011
Avg. Sales Price: $208,099
Total Volume: $788,485,505

January 1st, 2008 to March 10th, 2008
(% Change)

Sold: 2,863 (-25%)
Avg. DOM: 85 (+12%)
Avg. SF: 1,984 (-1.5%)
Avg. Sales Price: $194,344 (-7%)
Total Volume: $556,407,923 ( -30%) *Many sales are not reported until months after they take place so this number will most likely increase over time.

I wish I had better numbers to report. But what does this mean for you? Nothing until you look at your specific neighborhood sales stats. Many older and established neighborhoods near downtown Dallas are experiencing price increases while many newer developments in the outlying areas within Dallas county are experiencing losses. Talk to your neighborhood Realtor before you go spreading that doom and gloom gossip.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

High End House Porn for Your Eyes and Watch Calculators


(Take note folks. This is an example of a GREAT real estate picture. 3507 Crescent Ave. if you really want to know.)

Currently there are 50 homes available for sale in the Park Cities and vicinity over $3 million dollars. What I find interesting is that 22 of these homes were listed between January 1st of this year to today. (Some might have been relisted but I did my best to weed those out)

Now for the math part. In 2007, 43 homes sold over $3 million dollars in the Park Cities and vicinity. That's roughly 3.5 homes each month. If that rate stays consistent for 2008 there are 14 months worth of inventory on the market. That's not too bad for such a high end price range considering there are some areas in Preston Hollow that have 20 months worth of inventory sitting on the market between $1 million and $2 million.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

My Bad. Revised Park Cities Sales Stats



Turns out I didn't look very closely at the closing dates of the properties. Big thanks to Britt Fair for noticing there was not 1 closing in February on the CMA even though you can see I included the month of February in the search criteria up top. I just got off the phone with our MLS folks and apparently the term we use when you search for homes in Highland Park ISD was changed (there are 3 Highland Park ISD search terms in our MLS for some reason) which is why no closings showed up for the month of February. Completely my fault. Isn't technology fun? If I worked for a news station I would totally be fired. So here are the real 2008 sales stats. Lakewood and Preston Hollow stats were not affected.

Number of homes sold: 44 (60)
Avg. price/sf: $365.71 ($363.07)
Avg. sales price: $1,487,885 ($1,594,985)
Avg. days on market: 117 (75)

*2007 statistics for same time period in ( )

So that is only a 27% drop in number of homes sold and a 7% drop in price.

Monday, March 3, 2008

RE: Want More Sales Stats?


Thanks to some sweet props from Unfair Park and Park Cities People I've received quite a few requests for sales stats in different areas. If you haven't already, please email your requests directly to me at jeff@duffeyhomes.com. It might take me a day or so but I will definitely get back to you. Due to the number of requests I won't be posting all of the results I find, that is, unless there is something notable to share about a particular area's sales. And I promise your emails will not go unanswered.

Want More Sales Stats?

Let me know what neighborhood you want me to look at and I'll see what I can do.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

M-Streets & Lakewood Sales Stats Year-to-Date



Area 12, aka East Dallas, encompasses WAY too much area in my opinion. Search for homes in zip codes 75214 and 75206 and just see how many homes come up. Anyway, M-Streets and Lakewood are also affectionately known to Realtors as Area 12, Sub-areas 6 & 7, respectively. Think areas roughly South of Mockingbird and North of Gaston; East of 75 and West of White Rock Lake. Enough of that, here's what I found out.

Number of homes sold: 66 (94)
Avg. price/sf: $178.53 ($175.57)
Avg. sales price: $416,985 ($393,812)
Avg. days on market: 80 (74)

*2007 statistics for same time period in ( )

Apparently South of LBJ is showing similar not-so-hot results when it comes to number of homes sold over the same time period compared to one year ago. East Dallas posted a 30% drop in number of homes sold but, just like Preston Hollow, boasts a higher average sales price with a 6% increase. Check out all the fun 2007 and 2008 numbers for yourself.

Preston Hollow Sales Stats Year-to-Date



Area 11 or "Preston Hollow" boundaries for real estate purposes are very broad and I realize that. So don't go telling me how the REAL Preston Hollow does not include Strait Lane. Just so you know, Area 11 is defined by the areas North of NW Hwy and South of LBJ; East of Midway and West of 75.

Number of homes sold: 58 (92)
Avg. price/sf: $241.76 ($207.23)
Avg. sales price: $998,662 ($828,641)
Avg. days on market: 89 (79)

*2007 statistics for same time period in ( )

Preston Hollow - much like the Park Cities - posted a 37% drop in number of homes sold but comes in strong with a 17% rise in average sales price. See 2007 and 2008 here and here. So what does this mean for you in 2008? Nothing. If you're thinking about selling your home in 2008 then you need to call me, or a Realtor you trust, and I will take a good look at your house and what's going on in your specific neighborhood. Then based on that information you should be able to get a good idea of what you will be able to sell your home for.

Park Cities Sales Stats Year-to-Date



Number of homes sold: 17 (60)
Avg. price/sf: $361.34 ($363.07)
Avg. sales price: $1,474,997 ($1,594,985)
Avg. days on market: 108 (75)

*2007 statistics for same time period in ( )

So far in 2008 only 17 homes have sold within HPISD. You know I'm not one for doom and gloom news but I'm shaking just getting out my calculator because it ain't gonna be pretty. That is a 72% decline in number of homes sold compared to the same time period one year ago. Please don't tell Steve Brown about this. Don't believe me? See 2007 here and 2008 here. And we even had one more day in February this year. Ouch! What gives? DOW got everyone down? Pun intended.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I realize that there will probably be a few closings that were not input into the MLS last Friday so I'm sure there will be a few that hit the MLS Monday and Tuesday. But it still won't be close to last year's numbers.