NAR Has Fun With Numbers

Feel free to read this somewhat wordy article released today by NAR. Here are some of the highlights.

Existing-home sales are expected to rise 13.6 percent in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year.

Home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.

All Realtors should be thrilled with the increase in home sales. However, I wouldn't expect Dallas to live up to the price appreciation forecast. We tend to lag behind whatever the country is trending towards. I expect Dallas to remain stable and possibly depreciate 0% to 1% in 2010 mainly due to flushing out the bulk of the foreclosures and short sales.

And finally, I'm not sure what is meant by the unemployment rate "easing to 9.5%" means. Is it going up, down? This, IMHO, is the major factor in determining the future success of Dallas real estate. Many people are forced to foreclose because of a job loss. They have no savings, mortgaged to the hilt, credit cards are maxed and then BAM! They get laid off. Ninety days later the house is foreclosed on. So until people can be secure in their jobs I wouldn't expect 2010 to be all roses. But it also won't be all doom and gloom. There are many deals to be had out there and smart buyers are taking advantage.