NAR Has Fun With Numbers

Feel free to read this somewhat wordy article released today by NAR. Here are some of the highlights.

Existing-home sales are expected to rise 13.6 percent in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year.

Home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.

All Realtors should be thrilled with the increase in home sales. However, I wouldn't expect Dallas to live up to the price appreciation forecast. We tend to lag behind whatever the country is trending towards. I expect Dallas to remain stable and possibly depreciate 0% to 1% in 2010 mainly due to flushing out the bulk of the foreclosures and short sales.

And finally, I'm not sure what is meant by the unemployment rate "easing to 9.5%" means. Is it going up, down? This, IMHO, is the major factor in determining the future success of Dallas real estate. Many people are forced to foreclose because of a job loss. They have no savings, mortgaged to the hilt, credit cards are maxed and then BAM! They get laid off. Ninety days later the house is foreclosed on. So until people can be secure in their jobs I wouldn't expect 2010 to be all roses. But it also won't be all doom and gloom. There are many deals to be had out there and smart buyers are taking advantage.

My Prediction for Dallas Real Estate in 2008 and Beyond

Dallas ain't San Diego (pictured), thankyouverymuch. And that's just how we want to keep it. Wells Fargo economist, Scott Anderson, has said that Southern California home prices will decline over 10 percent in 2008, and additional half a percent in 2009, where he too believes the market will bottom. Not only that but an economist at Beacon Economist in Los Angeles feels that real estate prices in San Diego and Southern California will continue to decline through 2009 and will not show significant improvement until 2012.

2012? Ouch! My 2008 prediction for Dallas is there will be less sales this year but prices will remain flat (up or down 1% in Dallas), similar to 2007. In 2009 we will see a 2% or 3% increase in appreciation and the number of sales will increase slightly over 2008 numbers. And those that were walking away from their negative equity in '06, '07 and '08 will be itching to get back into the real estate market in 2010, 2011 & 2012.

Real Estate Stats You Need to Know

Recently, the President of my company, Sue Meyer, wrote a letter to the Dallas Morning News and the Star Telegram encouraging them to write more positive articles about our local real estate market. In this letter she uses statistics that some people will find startling. As you all know, I have been a consistent advocate for our local real estate market trying to make sure people understand Dallas/Ft. Worth is doing fine amidst all of the doom and gloom real estate markets around the country. “Real estate is local” has been my mantra for many months. What is happening in Florida has no effect on your home’s sales price. The only effect these stories have had is only on our psyche. So now it’s time to put my money where my mouth is, so to speak, and show you those statistics Sue Meyer showed all 1,300 agents with Coldwell Banker Dallas/Ft. Worth.

2006 was the best year for real estate sales ever in the North Texas region with a sales volume of $18.2 billion dollars. If North Texas sales continue at their current pace (5% appreciation overall), even with the slight dip in sales numbers we have seen recently, we are still going to have the second best year for real estate sales ever! These are very impressive statistics but I have yet to see any of our local newspapers put these numbers in writing and into perspective. It is true our sales have declined. But is that really a bad thing when compared to the best year in the history of real estate? I don’t think so.

So now that you are adequately armed with knowledge, go tell your friends and family. The more people think our real estate market is doing poorly, it is only a matter of time before we make that a reality. We are our own worst enemy. So the next time someone tells you real estate in North Texas is headed South, quote these numbers taken straight for the North Texas Real Estate Information System. Not only will they be impressed, your local real estate market will thank you.